Three charts that are warning signs flashing for Trump on Iran war
President Donald Trump’s popularity among the American public has been eroding steadily since he returned to the White House in January last year.
While some of this is typical for second-term American presidents, Trump’s initial decline also reflects ongoing public dissatisfaction with high prices and the cost of living – issues that have propelled Democrats to wins in a growing number of elections over the past year.
According to data by election analysis website The Downballot, Democrats did an average of 13% better in contested special elections in 2025 than they did in the same districts during the 2024 presidential election.
The war in Iran has only exacerbated these economic concerns.
Polling company Ipsos found that 43% of the American public approved of Trump’s handling of the economy at the start of his second term. By 23 June 2025, the number had dropped to 35%, a level it hovered around for the rest of the year.
Three weeks into the Iran war, petrol prices have surged to an average near $4 a US gallon, as seen in the chart below.
Trump’s economic approval rating, meanwhile, has fallen to 29%.
